US oil prices are marching higher as the Iran war enters what many analysts are calling a decisive third week, with pump prices forecast to approach $3.85 per gallon on Monday. Petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan has placed his Monday estimate at $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, while noting that $4 gasoline remains a possibility. The conflict has entered a phase where the long-term impact on global oil supply is becoming increasingly difficult to assess.
The price surge began on February 28, the day the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran, and has continued without significant interruption over the three weeks since. From below $3 per gallon before the conflict, the national average has climbed 23% to $3.70, driven by the progressive destruction of oil infrastructure and the strategic closure of shipping lanes. Consumer organizations and transportation industry groups have warned that the sustained nature of the increase is placing unsustainable pressure on American households.
Friday’s US bombardment of Kharg Island, Iran’s central oil export processing facility, marked one of the most significant attacks on energy infrastructure in the conflict to date. Iran’s continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively removed roughly one-fifth of global daily oil supply from world markets. Brent crude ranged from $103 to $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude hovered near $94 after briefly touching $100 the previous day.
California drivers are experiencing pump prices above $5 per gallon statewide, with certain Los Angeles stations charging above $8. Commercial transport industries face diesel costs that could rise to $5.15 per gallon nationally. Exxon CEO Darren Woods, along with counterparts at Conoco and Chevron, have each communicated urgent supply concerns to White House officials, with Woods specifically warning that speculative market activity could push prices beyond fundamental supply and demand levels.
Wall Street opened positively Monday, the S&P 500 gaining approximately 1% as oil prices temporarily retreated. Oil company stocks have surged to record highs since the conflict began. The decisive character of the conflict’s third week will shape how energy markets behave in the weeks ahead, making diplomatic and military developments in Iran the most closely watched story in global finance.